The next three months will be defining for Mercedes and their F1 chances in the foreseeable future. After two disappointing years, time is running out to produce a car capable of fighting for world titles.

There are only two seasons left until the regulations change in 2026. Considering the scale of these regulatory changes, teams must prepare these cars well in advance. Otherwise, they risk starting on the back foot.

Therefore, Toto Wolff’s team must improve with these existing cars quickly. If they cannot catch Red Bull this season, then their chances in 2025 become even slimmer.

With Lewis Hamilton’s contract expiring at the end of 2025, the 7-time Champion is relying on a quick turn-around.

In theory, last year’s campaign allowed the Silver Arrows to learn from their mistakes. When the 2024 season begins, they will be expected to have a largely new car in pursuit of a more conventional sidepod concept.

James Allison’s return to the team, in many ways, was an admission that the ‘zeropod’ philosophy failed.

Speaking after the season ended, Hamilton reflected on his increased activity in the team:

“I’m in the factory much more often now, having meetings with all the department heads to try and motivate and encourage them all,” he explained.

“I talk to them, show them where we need to improve and what direction we need to go in. I just try to help them be positive and to say we can do it. 

“I also looked closely at other vehicles and asked a lot of questions just to stimulate ideas.”

Hamilton was vocal about his frustrations last year, seemingly never subscribing to the team’s direction at the end of 2022.

Nobody doubts that Mercedes lost out massively last winter by pursuing the wrong question. They were essentially forced to accept a season of damage limitation.

However, it is unclear whether 2024 and 2025 can be salvaged. In theory, wind tunnel allocations and budgetary restrictions should hold back Red Bull.

Still, Red Bull’s relentless progression makes it difficult to doubt their development team. Until now, their understanding of these F1 cars has been unmatched by rivals.

It will be up to Mercedes, therefore, to surpass expectations and announce themselves as F1 contenders in 2024.