Four ferociously talented young drivers have made fast but fleeting impacts in Formula 1 in the past 12 months.

First, Liam Lawson stepped up a race seat with the RB team when Daniel Ricciardo broke his wrist in the autumn of 2023, delivering a series of solid, consistent drivers which impressed most observers and have eventually led to his recent promotion in place of his fellow antipodean.

Then Ollie Bearman shone in two stand-out performances of his own as a stand-in, scoring points on his F1 debut with Ferrari in Saudi Arabia in the spring before delivering another quick display in Azerbaijan for Haas, with whom he will race full-time in 2024.

In Italy in September two other youngsters caught the eye. The first was Andrea Kimi Antonelli, the teenage sensation who demonstrated incredible speed on a hot lap in practice for Mercedes before losing control of the car and hitting the wall.

On the same race weekend, Franco Colapinto raced for Williams for the first time as a shock replacement for the defenestrated Logan Sargeant, and since then the Argentinean has earned plenty of plaudits for his strong qualifying performances and ability to contend with experienced team-mate Alex Albon.

The former three will all be on the grid full-time in 2025, while Colapinto is a contender for the vacant seats with both Sauber and RB. But when an exciting crop of precocious juniors comes along, that spells bad news for the old guard, who know full well that their careers in the top tier are at risk.

Which F1 drivers could see their careers ended?

Valtteri Bottas could be set for an F1 exit

Only two seats remain available for 2025 as things stand. Given that one of them is at RB, which will either be given to Lawson or another young driver if the Kiwi is deemed worthy of replacing the ailing Sergio Perez at Red Bull, the only one which any established driver can hope of snaring is alongside Nico Hulkenberg at Sauber.

The Swiss outfit may be dead last in this year’s standings, way off the pace and without a point to their name, but the seat remains an attractive one. First and foremost it would allow a driver to continue in F1, but more importantly the team will be fully up and running as an Audi works outfit by the time F1’s new era of regulations rolls around in 2026. The chance to be a part of that project certainly appeals.

The likes of Colapinto and current F2 championship leader Gabriel Bortoleto have been heavily linked to the seat. Both drivers are clearly very talented, Colapinto has demonstrated his ability in F1 already and brings an attractive amount of South American sponsors with him, and the logic of pairing a younger man with the 37-year-old Hulkenberg is clear.

If Sauber do opt for either Colapinto or Bortoleto, the decision will come as a significant blow to some F1 stalwarts. In fact, it would almost certainly end four careers in one fell swoop.

The first two would be the team’s current pair, Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu. The former insists he is still optimistic about keeping his seat, while the latter is considered desperate for the exit door and his mediocre performances across the past two seasons almost certainly mean he will never return to F1.

The third is Mick Schumacher. The 25-year-old has already been out of F1 for two seasons, and if a German manufacturer at the genesis of a new project has no interest in hiring him, then it is almost certain the door has been closed on him in F1 for good.

And the decision will likely be the final nail in the coffin for Ricciardo in F1, too. The 35-year-old was unceremoniously dropped by RB after Singapore and has not been seriously linked with the Sauber seat.

What would make sense for Audi?

Franco Colapinto is in contention for the Sauber seat

Bottas has demonstrated over a long period of time that he is a competent and reliable grand prix driver, capable of genuinely beating Lewis Hamilton on raw pace from time to time. He is clearly keen to renew, too, and would be a relatively safe pair of hands alongside Hulkenberg for one more season.

But a driver line-up with an average age of 36 would hardly represent Audi building for the future, and Bottas doesn’t seem to be driving at the same level he was at Mercedes or Williams earlier in his career.

In truth, Colapinto’s surprisingly impressive performances combined with the sponsorship revenue he could bring to the team should render him the preferred candidate. But if he is the chosen one, whenever the decision is made, the enkindling of his full-time F1 career will be teamed with the extinguishing of four others.