Could Ohtani’s deal come back to haunt the Dodgers?
At some point, megacontracts have a habit of inducing regret among the teams who sign off on them. For the Los Angeles Dodgers, the excitement of signing Shohei Ohtani has barely worn off. That doesn’t mean his 10-year, $700 million deal can’t come back and haunt the franchise later.
According to Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report, there could be a day the Dodgers regret signing Ohtani to the largest contract in baseball history.
“Eventually, that bill will come due, and there will be a tipping point where what currently feels like a massive exploitation of a loophole will pivot into a conundrum for the franchise to deal with.”
Per Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report
To Miller’s point: $700 million is a lot of money, even if most of it is deferred until after Ohtani’s 10 years in a Dodgers uniform are up.
The reality is, that Ohtani is heading into his age-30 season with the Dodgers and has twice needed a procedure on his right UCL.
If the normal rules of aging curves apply to the game’s best player, Ohtani’s pitching will decline at some point. His hitting will follow suit.
While I don’t think the contract was necessarily a bad one, it invites questions. Namely: for as great at Ohtani is today, what will he be able to do on a baseball field at age 38? What does the aging curve look like for such a talented two-way player?
Miller believes Ohtani’s decline could begin when he turns 34.
“That tipping point probably won’t be until at least the 2028-29 offseason, when Ohtani will be 34, possibly starting to decline and still owed what at that point would be $690 million over the next 15 years. It could come sooner, though, if he doesn’t regain his dominance on the mound.”
Per Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report
While the bills on Ohtani’s contract will eventually haunt the Dodgers, there is a sense the franchise is destined for multiple World Series. Ohtani will be paired side-by-side with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. How often does any team employ three such talented players in their prime?
Los Angeles has proven over the years to be one of the best organizations in terms of player development. The Dodgers have consistently ranked among the top 10 farm systems in MLB, allowing them to reach the postseason each of the last 11 years.
That provides a degree of insurance against Ohtani’s inevitable decline. Even if his contract comes back to haunt the franchise, the Dodgers’ player development machine is a reliable source of younger — and cheaper — talent. That should be enough to offset a disappointing performance from any one player.