A contentious MLB trade involving Mike Trout, Corbin Burnes, and other players

The hot stove has gone a little cold of late, so what’s say we heat it up with some hot takes concerning Major League Baseball’s trade market?

This is not a backward-looking exercise. That would be boring and, besides, there’s nobody on this earth who can argue that the New York Yankees’ trade for Juan Soto was bad, actually. Not with a straight face, anyway.

Rather, this is about deals that probably aren’t going to happen but should. And also, deals that very well could happen but shouldn’t.

Maximum havoc, in other words. Let’s start wreaking it on Chicago’s South Side.

The White Sox Should Trade Luis Robert Jr.1 OF 8

With Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting that even Dylan Cease could still be on the Chicago White Sox come Opening Day, it’s doubtful that the team will change its tune on trading Luis Robert Jr. Heck, beyond doubtful.

“Luis Robert is a very difficult player to move and expect that your club is going to get better because of it,” Chris Getz, Chicago’s new general manager, said in December.

Coming off a season in which he produced 38 home runs and a career-high 5.0 rWAR, the 26-year-old Robert has creds as one of baseball’s best center fielders. He’s also signed through 2025, with club options for 2026 and 2027. That’s a valuable asset, alright.

Yet even with Cease and Robert, FanGraphs’ projections for 2024 have the White Sox producing the lowest total WAR of any team in the American League. That’s not too surprising on the heels of a 101-loss season in 2023, and then there’s the matter of the club’s middling farm system.

The last thing a team in this position should be doing is kidding itself about its contention timeline. And with Robert, specifically, there’s a real possibility his value will never be higher. There’s a dearth of impact hitters available in free agency, after all, and his injury history underscores the risk of hanging on to him.

The Angels Should Trade Mike Trout2 OF 8

Elsewhere in the American League, Getz isn’t the only GM taking a hard line on trading a star center fielder. Perry Minasian is adamant that Mike Trout will remain a Los Angeles Angel:

This tracks with the direction the Angels have charted for themselves this winter. They may be coming off an 89-loss season. And they may have lost Shohei Ohtani to the Los Angeles Dodgers. But, dang it, they’re not rebuilding.

But even more so than the White Sox, the Angels really can’t afford to kid themselves about their contention timeline. They project as the fourth-worst team in the AL next season and, coincidentally, also have the fourth-worst farm system in MLB at the moment.

Now, it is possible that Minasian’s stance on trading Trout is informed by the three-time MVP himself. His 12-year, $426.5 million contract comes with full no-trade protection, and he doesn’t sound like a guy who wants out. If he wants to stay put, then he’ll stay put.

Yet if Minasian’s stance is pure stubbornness on his and owner Arte Moreno’s part, then they need to see the writing on the wall. Beyond saying the team itself is in a hopeless spot, it also says that the days of Trout’s prime are clearly running out. If they’re ever going to trade him, it should be now.

The Red Sox Should Trade Trevor Story3 OF 8

Trevor Story may be a shortstop, but the notion that the Boston Red Sox could trade him this winter is admittedly coming out of left field. There are no solid reports that he’s on the block.

Then again, there were also no solid reports of the Red Sox shopping ace left-hander Chris Sale before, suddenly, he was going to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom. It was partly a cost-cutting maneuver on Boston’s part, and now Nightengale is reporting that closer Kenley Jansen and outfielder Masataka Yoshida could also be had in trades.

If so, well, why not Story as well?

The two-time All-Star has had a rough go of it in two seasons with the Red Sox, playing in only 137 games and managing just a .685 OPS. But he should still have ample offensive upside if he can stay healthy, and he’s otherwise remained a solidly above average defender.

If the Red Sox were willing to eat a chunk of the $100 million Story is owed through 2027, they could perhaps find willing trade partners in shortstop-needy teams like the San Francisco Giants and Miami Marlins. As a nice bonus, the way would then be clear for top prospect Marcelo Mayer to take over at short in the near future.

The Blue Jays Should Trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr.4 OF 8

Meanwhile in Toronto, there actually has been some trade buzz surrounding Vladimir Guerrero Jr. recently.

ESPN’s Buster Olney insinuated as far back as October that other teams would be eyeing the slugging first baseman for a trade and, sure enough, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported in November that the Toronto Blue Jays were getting calls on Guerrero and Bo Bichette.

Neither seems remotely likely to go anywhere. The Blue Jays’ contention window is very much open and they’re looking to add bats, not subtract them.

Yet there is some sense in trading Guerrero, mostly because of the financial burden he poses on the Blue Jays. The 24-year-old is slated to make north of $20 million this year, with another raise to come via arbitration in 2025. That’s a lot of money for a bat-only first baseman whose returns have diminished since a 48-homer outburst in 2021.

Yet given Guerrero’s age and how few impact bats are available on the open market, the apparent interest in him is the very opposite of surprising. The Blue Jays could shore up their future by leveraging it into a huge haul of talent and then take care of their present by using the savings to sign, say, Cody Bellinger and/or Matt Chapman.

The Brewers Should Trade Christian Yelich5 OF 8

Apropos of Toronto’s search for hitters, Jon Heyman of the New York Post dropped an interesting name during a B/R live stream back in December: Christian Yelich.

Take this for what it’s worth, both because the Blue Jays subsequently filled their outfield by re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and because Heyman merely said they had been “kicking around” Yelich’s name internally.

But if another team calls the Milwaukee Brewers about the 2018 National League MVP, they’d do well to listen. Whereas it would have been unthinkable after he had back-to-back-to-back down years between 2020 and 2022, the Brewers using a trade to get out of paying him the $136.5 million he’s owed through 2028 may no longer be impossible.

Yelich had a rebound year in 2023, tallying an .818 OPS and 3.6 rWAR with solid underlying metrics. Even at 32 years old, he would perhaps be the most desirable position player outside Bellinger if he were a free agent right now.

Because he has full no-trade protection, any deal the Brewers make involving Yelich would ultimately need his approval. But since they’re playing it cheap in their new post-Craig Counsell era, his being willing to go elsewhere hardly seems inconceivable.

The Brewers Shouldn’t Trade Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames6 OF 8

What the Brewers shouldn’t do, on the other hand, is trade Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames.

Though there had been talk of both stars moving after Yoshinobu Yamamoto made his decision—he chose the Dodgers, by the way—that may no longer be the case for at least one of them. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the chances of Burnes going anywhere before spring training are “dwindling.”

Which isn’t too surprising, really. The 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner sounds determined to reach free agency after 2024, which should hypothetically limit his market to win-now teams. It’s a small list, and that means less leverage for Milwaukee.

It’s not hard to imagine them facing a similar conundrum with Adames. He’s also due for free agency after 2024, and thus not the most ideal candidate for the previously mentioned shortstop-needy teams in San Francisco and Miami. Both are fringe contenders.

So, why not hold on to both for now? The two of them together should barely cost more than what Yelich is making on his own, after all, and there would be at least a vague path to contention in 2024 if both stick around. And if the wins don’t come, so be it. There’s always the summer trading season.

The Guardians Shouldn’t Trade Shane Bieber or Anyone7 OF 8

It apparently isn’t just Burnes whose chances of being traded are dwindling.

According to Passan, that’s also the case with fellow Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber. Which is even less surprising. Whereas Burnes more or less kept his value high with yet another strong season in 2023, Bieber was limited to 21 starts by elbow inflammation and saw his strikeout rate dip to a career-low 7.5 per nine innings.

If the Cleveland Guardians are going to keep Bieber, they might as well also hold on to the other players who have popped up in trade rumors. Namely, ace closer Emmanuel Clase and first baseman Josh Naylor, who seemed to have one foot in Seattle for a second there.

I say “might as well” for two reasons, starting with the possibility that the Guardians could contend in 2024 even after an 86-loss season in 2023. The AL Central is never not wide-open these days, and they project reasonably well. What’s more, their best prospects are in the high minors.

Otherwise, the Guardians don’t appear to be in dire financial straits. Despite their sketchy local TV situation, they’re expected to run a similar payroll in 2024 to what they did in 2023. As of now, there’s no need for them to cut payroll in order to do so.

The Twins Shouldn’t Trade Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco8 OF 8

Elsewhere in the AL Central, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported in December that the Minnesota Twins are entertaining offers for two offensive stalwarts: Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco.

In the abstract, this is an odd thing for the Twins to be doing after winning the division title and actually advancing in the playoffs for the first time in over two decades in 2023.

Alas, it’s a money thing. After operating on a $154 million payroll last season, the Twins reportedly want to get down into the $125-140 million range in 2024. Cutting Kepler’s $10 million salary or Polanco’s $10.5 million salary would help.

The tricky part now, though, is that the Twins are already projected to open 2024 at the low end of that range. Trading Kepler or Polanco therefore seems needless, not to mention self-sabotaging.

After all, the Twins project to once again be the best team in the AL Central this season. It’s in their interest to see if that plays out, both because winning is good in general and because it tends to be good for business.