The Champions League had only two overwhelming favourites ahead of the draw on Friday.

With the likes of Bayern Munich, PSG, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid far from their best, Manchester City and Real Madrid appeared the best-placed candidates to take the title home.

The draw earlier today, in that sense, provided Carlo Ancelotti with the worst possible outcome. Pitted against Pep Guardiola’s defending champions, qualifying for the semifinals will require a mammoth effort from Los Blancos.

A critical factor

While Manchester City are indeed the toughest opposition the men in white could have been drawn up against, there is a second massive factor that could be pivotal in deciding who progresses to the final four.

Four Real Madrid players, after all, are one yellow card away from missing the second leg through suspension.

What puts the seriousness of the situation into perspective is the identity of the four players. Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Jr, Aurelien Tchouameni, and Eduardo Camavinga are the four names at risk of suspension, all of whom are pillars in Ancelotti’s setup.

Bellingham is the leading goalscorer for Real Madrid while Vinicius has been the most in-form player for the team in recent weeks.

Tchouameni’s defensive nous and versatility have made him a crucial figure for the team and Camavinga’s value cannot be understated either.

Tchouameni, Camavinga at risk of suspension in UCL. (Photo by PIERRE-PHILIPPE MARCOU/AFP via Getty Images)

All players are currently on two yellow cards in the Champions League and another booking would earn them an automatic one-match ban.

With the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu set to be a cracker, the four players must keep cool heads on the night to avoid getting suspended for the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium.

A budding rivalry

For the past two Champions League editions, Real Madrid and Manchester City have faced off in the knockout stages.

Two years ago, Guardiola’s side took a 4-3 lead in the first leg and were at the cusp of qualification after an early Riyad Mahrez goal. Rodrygo, however, crushed their dream with two late goals before Karim Benzema’s finish knocked them out.

Last season, the men in blue had their revenge. The 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu set the second leg up well, but City thrashed Real Madrid by a 4-0 scoreline to advance.

In both of the last two editions, the victor of the clash between Real Madrid and Manchester City has gone on to win the title. This time around too, the storyline could well be the same and Ancelotti will hope the third time is lucky for him.