There are a number of scenarios that could see Max Verstappen win the Drivers’ Championship ahead of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.
Verstappen trails Norris by 24 points ahead of the final two race weekends in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
The sixth and final sprint race of the season will be held in Qatar, meaning another eight points for the win are up for grabs.
Verstappen won the Las Vegas Grand Prix last weekend ahead of Norris, who was later disqualified – along with Piastri – due to excessive plank wear.
Therefore, instead of facing an almost unassailable 42-point deficit to the McLaren driver, Verstappen now has a greater chance of winning his fifth consecutive title.
Norris, meanwhile, has to finish ahead of Verstappen in both the sprint and one of the final two Grands Prix to secure his maiden title.
There are a significant number of scenarios that could see Verstappen win the title come the end of the season, but Twitter account @F1GuyDan has calculated five of the most realistic ones.
Scenario 1
One of the scenarios sees Norris finish in second in the Qatar sprint race, before only managing sixth in the Grand Prix itself.
He then finishes in second place in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix to end his season with a haul of 33 points from the final two weekends.
Verstappen would need to win the Qatar sprint and both the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix to lift the Drivers’ Championship by a single point.
Scenario 2
In this scenario, Verstappen would replicate the same results as above.
Norris, meanwhile, would again finish second in the Qatar sprint but jump up to fourth in the Grand Prix.
But in Abu Dhabi, he would only manage third, securing Verstappen the title on countback.
Scenario 3
This scenario is the only one that sees Verstappen not pick up maximum points and still win the title.
He would cross the line in second place in the Qatar sprint, before winning in Qatar and Abu Dhabi over the full race distance.
Verstappen would therefore record 423 points in this scenario compared to the 424 in all others.
Norris, meanwhile, would get 424 points courtesy of a Qatar sprint win, seventh in the race itself and second in Abu Dhabi.
Scenario 4
After finishing second behind Verstappen in the Qatar sprint, Norris would fail to pick up a point in Qatar before bouncing back with a second-placed finish in Abu Dhabi.
In that scenario, the McLaren driver would only manage 415 points and lose the title by nine points.
Scenario 5
In the final scenario, Piastri would split Verstappen and Norris in the Qatar sprint by finishing second.
Norris would then cross the line in fifth in Qatar, and finish second in Abu Dhabi to lose on countback.
Notably, all five of the scenarios see Norris fail to win either of the final two Grands Prix.
He could yet do so and still miss out on the title, but he would have to pick up only a maximum of two more points across the sprint and the other Grand Prix to miss out on countback.
